Latest from BCA Research

First Republic Bank’s earnings report showed how its struggles have exaggerated the perception of other banks’ distress. Ex-FRC, the banking system appears to be coping with the post-Silicon Valley Bank turmoil pretty well.

Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.

Special Report

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is very weak. What are the ramifications of all of these for Chinese economic growth and financial markets?

Special Report

We recommend investors to be cautious on Growth Equity and Late-Stage Venture Capital. The marginal dollar is currently best suited for Private Credit at the expense of Private Equity. Our next Special Report will examine why we prefer lenders of capital.

We see a more positive backdrop for credit providers, with bilateral and structuring features as tailwinds for Private Credit. While there may be potential green shoots in some areas of Private Equity, current valuations are not attractive. We prefer Directional Hedge Funds over Diversifier and Risk Mitigation strategies. Real Estate has been an effective hedge against inflation, but now historically low cap rates are a headwind.

Special Report

This Special Report discusses why there is a non-negligible risk that the US Congress will not reach a timely agreement to lift the debt ceiling this summer. It also discusses what will happen in bond markets in the lead up to the debt limit and in the case where a deal is not reached in time.

European equities continue to inch closer to record highs, yet, their earnings outlook is deteriorating. How can investors build hedging portfolios using the message from earnings and valuations to protect themselves against the growing risk of a pullback?

The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks was encouraging on balance. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low. Though a recession is surely coming, it doesn’t seem to be lurking just around the corner.

In this week’s report, we look at the current de-dollarization discussion within the context of the USD’s near-term cyclical outlook, and whether it warrants a bullish or bearish stance.

We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.