In this week’s report, we look at whether global growth conditions remain conducive for a continued decline in the dollar. Our findings are mixed, while there are some economic green shoots, the overall growth picture remains weak. This argues for some consolidation of dollar losses in the near term...
While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes....
We measure the effects of inflation and growth cycles on the returns of various assets using the four-quadrant approach, where we classify periods into the following buckets: Slowing inflation/slowing growth (slowdown), rising growth/slowing inflation (goldilocks), rising growth/rising inflation (ov...
CCP policy stimulus will boost growth in China this year. Copper prices breached $4.00/lb on COMEX this week, as expected. We continue to forecast $4.50/lb this year, with upside price risk dominating. Iron ore also will rise, but economic and regulatory policy uncertainty clouds the outlook. We rem...
The crucial question for 2023 is: will the US and UK Beveridge Curves shift back inwards to their pre-pandemic versions, ushering in a soft landing? Or, will we slide down the new post-pandemic Beveridge Curves into recession? Plus: we reveal the most important chart for Europe and the most importan...
The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold....
Why will Chinese consumer spending recover but not its industrial sectors? Will China's reopening boost the global business cycle and inflation? How fast will US core inflation fall and what are the implications for corporate profits? Are global equities pricing in enough bad news/profit contraction...
In this report, we present our review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the full calendar year 2022 and the initial outlook for 2023. We envision a changed game plan for fixed income investing this year, as the focus of bond investors begins to shift fr...
This Friday, January 13th, will mark the beginning of the Q4-2022 earnings season, with the biggest banks, such as JPM, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reporting quarterly earnings. This note will review consensus expectations, revisit our own (correct) earnings predictions, and lay out ...
China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next six months. Meanwhile, overseas customers will continue to reduce t...
