Long-term drivers, including the growing ability of banks to returns cash to shareholders, point toward a strong structural performance for European financials. However, the ECB’s aggressive tightening campaign could still spoil the party....
The US equity market is in the midst of an earnings contraction driven by slowing sales growth – a manifestation of the weakening economic demand and loss of corporate pricing power that accompany disinflation. The telecommunications industry is a defensive industry that faces many challenges: Low g...
We refresh our 2023 plan of attack to reflect the latest data and several rounds of discussions with clients in virtual and face-to-face meetings. We continue to expect a meaningful first-half rally in the S&P 500, despite revising our expected terminal fed funds rate 25 basis points higher....
In this report we provide an update to our August Insight on sentiment. We find that the Visibility factor now looks overbought, which is a good sign for stocks favored by the BCA Score....
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/SEK at 11.30....
The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback....
High realized inventories are weighing on global oil prices. We expect oil market deficits will draw on accumulated inventories over the forecast period. Petro-state instability – arising mainly from Russia and the Middle East – is a key geopolitical trend in 2023 and will likely lead to oil supply ...
Investor sentiment on China and EM has become bullish. Meanwhile, the reflation plays have begun fraying on the edges. Cracks always appear first in the most sensitive reflation plays and then spread to the core. The narratives of the Fed's imminent pivot and China's recovery will be questioned in t...
Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year....
Thai stocks and currency will weaken over the short term. And yet EM equity portfolios should overweight Thailand as tourism revivals will rejuvenate this economy....
