Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe....
Numerous breakdowns are occurring in global equities outside the US large cap. All these market moves point to a global economy that cannot handle high borrowing costs. Unless EM share prices find a bottom in absolute and relative terms before year-end, they will have experienced a structural breakd...
The Israeli-Arab crisis is more likely to expand and cause oil disruptions than market consensus holds. Close long dollar trades and go long energy and defense stocks relative to cyclicals....
US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds ove...
As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically and globally. The Party also will be forced to deliver stronger fisca...
Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones....
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation...
Investors should book profits on our long Egyptian Treasury bill trade as the outlook for the Egyptian pound has worsened. The position has generated an 11.4% return in US dollar terms since its initiation eight months back....
