Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays....
The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery....
Political economy dominates fundamentals going into 2024, as states prepare for war and de-risk supply chains. Asynchronous global growth will elevate commodity-price volatility. We expect oil to trade above $100/bbl in 2024 and continue to favor equity exposure to oil-and-gas producers. Given weak ...
Nominal household spending growth in China will slow in 2024. Strong headwinds will arise from a slower household income expansion, falling house prices, a downbeat employment outlook, and shrinking exports. Spending on healthcare services will post solid gains but durable goods consumption will exp...
Our 2024 outlook can be encapsulated into just 39 words and three key views. Key view 1: The end of China’s housing boom means the end of the world’s main growth engine. Key view 2: If the Fed and ECB don’t kill the economy, they won’t kill inflation. Key view 3: The AI gold rush will struggle to fi...
Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays....
