In this final note for the year, we take profits and close several long-term investment positions: Overweights in Insurance and Commercial Services, and underweights in Utilities, and Retail and Commercial REITs....
In Section I, we discuss the implications and potential risks of the Fed’s recent pivot. The near-term implications of the Fed's dovish pivot are likely to continue to be bullish for risky asset prices, and a new high in global stock prices cannot be ruled out. The Fed has not effectively countered ...
The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely. Chinese share prices remain vulnerable, and strengthening in the RMB wi...
The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will increase stock and bond market volatility....
Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market....
Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run....
Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn tactically defensive until more investors are drawn into the soft-landing ca...
