We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and furth...
Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters....
Commodity volatility will continue its rising trend since 2014. The US is on the brink of a major election, the outcome of which could reduce its willingness to engage with the outside world. So, states seeking to carve out their own spheres of influence are incentivized to raise the economic costs ...
In Section I, we discuss the important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” economic narrative. Forward-looking measures of labor demand are heralding an eventual rise in the unemployment rate, and it is unlikely that this will occur in a benign fashion. This underscores that the US economy remains on...
The US primary election is effectively over. The Biden-Trump rematch – our base case since 2022 – is all but set in stone. Only a health issue or freak incident could change that now....
Middle East conflict, extreme US policy uncertainty, Chinese economic slowdown, US-Russian proxy war, and Asian military conflicts do not create a stable investment backdrop for 2024. Our top five “black swan” risks may be highly improbable, but they stem from these underlying trends....
After months of strong performance, Homebuilders and Durable Goods have become crowded trades and are prone to disappointment. We are booking profits and downshifting to a neutral position....
There is no easy way for China to forestall deflation. Provided policymakers are still reluctant to unleash large-size stimulus, more economic disappointments are likely in the coming months, and Chinese stocks will continue to sell off. The yuan is at risk of further depreciation versus the US doll...
