Our quant models suggest Democrats are still slightly favored for the White House. Our Senate model favors Republican control, though Montana and Ohio are the weak links that could deliver Democrats a de facto Senate majority in the event they keep the White House. But there are still six months bef...
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go through the implications for stocks, bonds, interest rates, and the ...
This year’s cash for clunkers program will have only a mildly positive impact on domestic demand for automobiles and home appliances in China. In the meantime, the equipment renewal program will prop up domestic manufacturing moderately as well as help the country reduce its reliance on high-end equ...
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense....
The Telecoms industry is highly concentrated, and carriers compete on price and quality of service in a slow growing market. Demand for capex is relentless. The roll out of 5G has disappointed. Recently, capex outlays have slowed, and operating cash flow has rebounded. Further, Telecoms is a quintes...
In the short run, global risk assets are vulnerable due to rising oil prices and bond yields. Cyclically, a global economic downturn will weigh on global risk assets....
We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor mar...
