The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating....
The Indian election outcome is a positive development for the country’s long-term socio-economic outlook. Indian stocks, however, remain vulnerable in the near term due to sharply slowing nominal sales and surging real borrowing costs. Indian domestic bonds, on the other hand, are a buy....
Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish....
To reduce the Chinese economy’s addiction to credit and use new credit to foster growth, authorities must restructure or shut down numerous negative cash flow enterprises. Slumping US and global growth will lead to lower US bond yields. Yet, the trade-weighted greenback will likely appreciate if glo...
We consider the relative merits of four different fixed income investments in the current economic environment: 2-year Treasuries, 10-year Treasuries, Baa-rated corporate bonds and current coupon Agency MBS....
US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional allocation....
The EU's import tariff increases on Chinese EVs are expected to have a minimal impact on China's overall exports. We anticipate that most Western-brand EV shipments from China will be less affected by the EU import tax hike. Beijing will likely pursue continued negotiations with the EU rather than r...
In light of this week’s RBA decision to keep policy on hold, we look at the best possible trades in fixed income markets. In our view, inflation-linked bonds, relative to nominals remain a good bet....
