Latest from BCA Research

The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.

In this Strategic Insight, we will summarize earnings and sales expectations, corporate guidance, and what is priced in.

China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.

This report looks at the relationship between rate risk and credit risk and how it has changed over time. It also makes the case for favoring agency MBS within an underweight allocation to US spread product.

We Introduce our new macro models for the Eurozone’s equity earnings, which include sectoral forecasts. Find out what they predict for the next six-to-nine months.

Special Report

The YTD market rally was driven by outperformance of high-quality growth stocks which offer protection in uncertain times. As growth continues to slow, high-quality growth stocks should continue to do well. Hence, we are moving to overweight Growth vs. Value.

Investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent data suggest that the aggregate banking system is bouncing back nicely.

Special Report

In this Special Report, we evaluate future prospects for the Australian dollar and Australian government bonds. The currency remains fundamentally cheap, and positioning is very short, but the AUD will continue to underperform in the near-term due to sluggish global growth. Australian government bonds have had a nice run of outperformance over the past year, but it is now time to take profits with given the uncertainty that the RBA will deliver the rate cuts currently discounted.

A benign disinflation is probable during the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, just when most people become convinced that a recession has been avoided, a recession will begin.

There are several widespread market narratives regarding US inflation, the Fed’s policy, global manufacturing/trade and China’s recovery that we disagree with. In this report, we explain our reasoning and where it puts us in terms of investment strategies.