Today, we are sending you a report recently published by BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy service titled Little Cash On The Sidelines. Arthur Budaghyan, Chief EM/China Strategist, argues that “cash on the sidelines” in the US is low relative to the market value of investable US securities in general,...
A major slowdown in nominal growth was behind Indonesia’s recent stock underperformance. Dedicated EM equity portfolios should upgrade Indonesian stocks from underweight to neutral. We also recommend a new relative trade: go long Indonesian banks / short EM banks....
Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are supportive developments for oil prices. Within the br...
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?...
This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar....
The absence of a catalyst that will boost Chinese steel demand dims the odds that iron ore and steel prices will recover over the coming six-to-nine months. Instead, we expect ferrous metals to face further downside into year-end....
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or saved for later. Our colleagues expect the ...
Oil markets will not be impacted by Venezuela in the near term, but by shocks from the Middle East. Maduro’s ability to stay in power in the short-term removes an avenue of oil supply relief. The same avenue is cut off if Trump is reelected. Geopolitical shocks in Venezuela could present tactical bu...
In this Special Report, Jonathan LaBerge of The Bank Credit Analyst argues that the Fed should abandon the framework changes that it made in 2020, both to its inflation and employment objectives. If “structural dovishness” is made a permanent feature of Fed policy, investors can expect more frequent...
